Population mondiale en 2050 : projections par pays

Population mondiale en 2050 : projections par pays

Perspectives de la population mondiale de l'ONU, révision 2024 (variante moyenne)

Projections en variante moyenne des Nations Unies de la population par pays en 2050, comparées à aujourd'hui.

  • 199 pays et territoires classés
  • Le plus élevé : Inde
  • Le plus bas : îles Vierges des États-Unis

Télécharger ce tableau en Excel (.xlsx)

Rang Pays Population 2050RégionPopulation 2026Évolution d'ici 2050Âge médian 2050
1 Inde 1,679,589,259 ASIE 1,476,625,577 +13.7% 39.2
2 Chine 1,260,289,094 ASIE 1,412,914,089 -10.8% 53.1
3 Etats-Unis d'Amérique 380,846,910 AMERIQUE DU NORD 349,035,494 +9.1% 42.9
4 Pakistan 371,863,793 ASIE 259,299,792 +43.4% 27.3
5 Nigeria 359,185,556 AFRIQUE 242,431,832 +48.2% 24.9
6 Indonésie 320,712,950 ASIE 287,886,783 +11.4% 37.8
7 Ethiopie 225,021,875 AFRIQUE 138,902,185 +62.0% 25.6
8 R.D. Congo 218,246,072 AFRIQUE 116,452,162 +87.4% 21.0
9 Brésil 217,489,300 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 213,562,667 +1.8% 44.9
10 Bangladesh 214,709,097 ASIE 177,818,045 +20.7% 36.5
11 Egypte 161,630,192 AFRIQUE 120,101,176 +34.6% 31.9
12 Mexique 148,946,274 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 132,997,658 +12.0% 39.7
13 Russie 136,132,775 EUROPE 143,394,458 -5.1% 42.8
14 Philippines 134,373,439 ASIE 117,724,472 +14.1% 36.9
15 Tanzanie 129,621,103 AFRIQUE 72,563,781 +78.6% 22.8
16 Viet Nam 110,008,908 ASIE 102,177,431 +7.7% 41.3
17 Japon 105,123,168 ASIE 122,427,731 -14.1% 53.8
18 Iran 101,861,994 ASIE 93,168,498 +9.3% 44.5
19 Turquie 91,258,061 ASIE 87,926,082 +3.8% 45.3
20 Uganda 85,431,202 AFRIQUE 52,761,470 +61.9% 25.0
21 Soudan 85,206,383 AFRIQUE 53,282,719 +59.9% 25.0
22 Kenya 83,593,239 AFRIQUE 58,636,412 +42.6% 27.3
23 Afrique du Sud 79,177,328 AFRIQUE 65,453,085 +21.0% 33.4
24 Allemagne 78,294,613 EUROPE 83,644,258 -6.4% 48.9
25 Afghanistan 76,885,135 ASIE 45,047,069 +70.7% 24.1
26 Royaume Uni 75,504,681 EUROPE 69,931,528 +8.0% 43.9
27 Angola 74,295,395 AFRIQUE 40,215,180 +84.7% 22.0
28 Irak 71,928,750 ASIE 48,007,437 +49.8% 28.8
29 Yémen 70,976,403 ASIE 42,961,653 +65.2% 25.1
30 France 68,219,675 EUROPE 66,746,401 +2.2% 44.5
31 Thailande 66,382,735 ASIE 71,559,615 -7.2% 49.6
32 Mozambique 63,530,952 AFRIQUE 36,639,851 +73.4% 22.7
33 Algérie 59,565,555 AFRIQUE 48,028,334 +24.0% 35.6
34 Colombie 59,385,357 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 53,936,226 +10.1% 44.7
35 Birmanie (Myanmar) 58,623,232 ASIE 55,184,819 +6.2% 37.4
36 Côte d'Ivoire 55,746,985 AFRIQUE 33,494,346 +66.4% 23.6
37 Madagascar 53,185,475 AFRIQUE 33,522,052 +58.7% 25.2
38 Niger 52,513,876 AFRIQUE 28,814,878 +82.2% 22.3
39 Ouzbékistan 52,210,755 ASIE 37,724,223 +38.4% 29.2
40 Italie 51,891,099 EUROPE 58,926,167 -11.9% 53.9
41 Cameroun 51,096,317 AFRIQUE 30,640,817 +66.8% 24.1
42 Ghana 50,553,047 AFRIQUE 35,697,557 +41.6% 28.0
43 Argentine 48,308,944 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 46,003,734 +5.0% 42.9
44 Arabie Saoudite 47,693,910 ASIE 35,165,787 +35.6% 33.0
45 Mali 46,154,079 AFRIQUE 25,932,275 +78.0% 21.3
46 Canada 45,621,882 AMERIQUE DU NORD 40,467,728 +12.7% 46.1
47 Corée du sud (République de Corée) 45,143,134 ASIE 51,600,388 -12.5% 57.8
48 Espagne 44,928,558 EUROPE 47,850,793 -6.1% 52.8
49 Malaisie 44,289,773 ASIE 36,385,115 +21.7% 41.2
50 Maroc 43,440,431 AFRIQUE 38,762,441 +12.1% 38.4
51 Pérou 40,583,876 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 34,922,148 +16.2% 40.1
52 Chad 38,857,686 AFRIQUE 21,560,380 +80.2% 20.8
53 Zambie 38,083,386 AFRIQUE 22,521,916 +69.1% 24.6
54 Syrie (République arabe syrienne) 37,793,372 ASIE 26,472,497 +42.8% 33.1
55 Malawi 37,361,683 AFRIQUE 22,785,535 +64.0% 25.6
56 Burkina Faso 37,304,383 AFRIQUE 24,601,700 +51.6% 25.8
57 Somalie 37,206,512 AFRIQUE 20,305,907 +83.2% 21.2
58 Népal 34,642,027 ASIE 29,629,410 +16.9% 36.0
59 Pologne 32,814,097 EUROPE 37,843,189 -13.3% 52.6
60 Australie 32,506,970 OCÉANIE 27,227,096 +19.4% 43.0
61 Ukraine 31,990,132 EUROPE 39,535,849 -19.1% 52.0
62 Venezuela 31,094,883 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 28,633,711 +8.6% 37.5
63 Sénégal 30,364,954 AFRIQUE 19,366,548 +56.8% 26.7
64 Kazakhstan 26,544,265 ASIE 21,083,627 +25.9% 32.2
65 Zimbabwe 25,866,385 AFRIQUE 17,273,580 +49.7% 24.6
66 Corée du Nord 25,787,128 ASIE 26,633,691 -3.2% 43.9
67 Sri Lanka 24,813,690 ASIE 23,348,315 +6.3% 41.2
68 Guatemala 24,670,857 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 18,967,978 +30.1% 34.0
69 Bénin 24,433,810 AFRIQUE 15,170,420 +61.1% 24.0
70 Burundi 24,131,720 AFRIQUE 14,729,157 +63.8% 23.6
71 Guinée 23,404,584 AFRIQUE 15,441,993 +51.6% 25.3
72 Rwanda 22,707,910 AFRIQUE 14,889,693 +52.5% 26.8
73 Cambodge 21,931,455 ASIE 18,051,220 +21.5% 33.2
74 Equateur 21,337,238 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 18,444,507 +15.7% 40.6
75 Chili 20,320,307 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 19,945,850 +1.9% 49.9
76 Pays-Bas 18,958,475 EUROPE 18,448,776 +2.8% 46.5
77 Soudan du Sud 18,341,974 AFRIQUE 12,436,037 +47.5% 26.0
78 Jordanie 16,367,355 ASIE 11,589,533 +41.2% 33.3
79 Bolivie 16,110,162 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 12,749,291 +26.4% 32.9
80 Roumanie 16,027,267 EUROPE 18,800,605 -14.8% 47.3
81 Togo 15,584,778 AFRIQUE 9,930,919 +56.9% 24.3
82 Tadjikistan 15,574,643 ASIE 10,978,599 +41.9% 28.8
83 Emirats arabes unis 15,367,392 ASIE 11,574,682 +32.8% 33.5
84 Papouasie-Nouvelle-Guinée 14,906,590 OCÉANIE 10,947,848 +36.2% 29.5
85 Honduras 14,846,779 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 11,184,760 +32.7% 33.3
86 Haiti 14,710,862 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 12,037,506 +22.2% 32.1
87 Tunisie 13,145,141 AFRIQUE 12,415,139 +5.9% 41.4
88 Israel 13,092,722 ASIE 9,647,689 +35.7% 33.2
89 République Dominicaine 12,996,293 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 11,609,500 +11.9% 37.2
90 Sierra Leone 12,948,325 AFRIQUE 8,996,745 +43.9% 27.4
91 Belgique 11,870,906 EUROPE 11,774,643 +0.8% 46.3
92 Suède 11,309,631 EUROPE 10,701,047 +5.7% 45.1
93 Azerbaïdjan 11,224,923 ASIE 10,454,855 +7.4% 40.8
94 Congo 11,006,472 AFRIQUE 6,637,786 +65.8% 24.1
95 République centrafricaine 10,616,753 AFRIQUE 5,698,984 +86.3% 20.2
96 République Tchèque 9,825,544 EUROPE 10,527,781 -6.7% 47.1
97 Portugal 9,770,271 EUROPE 10,395,363 -6.0% 49.3
98 Laos 9,757,286 ASIE 7,974,018 +22.4% 34.0
99 Kyrgyzstan 9,642,953 ASIE 7,400,465 +30.3% 31.5
100 Turkmenistan 9,639,708 ASIE 7,736,632 +24.6% 33.8
101 Mauritanie 9,415,598 AFRIQUE 5,461,319 +72.4% 23.4
102 Cuba 9,382,000 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 10,892,659 -13.9% 50.9
103 Suisse 9,342,586 EUROPE 9,007,798 +3.7% 48.8
104 Libye 9,260,606 AFRIQUE 7,539,852 +22.8% 37.3
105 Liberia 8,910,530 AFRIQUE 5,853,949 +52.2% 25.7
106 Grèce 8,812,070 EUROPE 9,897,116 -11.0% 50.9
107 Nicaragua 8,756,430 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 7,097,329 +23.4% 35.9
108 Hongrie 8,725,347 EUROPE 9,585,818 -9.0% 46.5
109 Autriche 8,724,332 EUROPE 9,107,266 -4.2% 50.2
110 Paraguay 8,640,464 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 7,095,280 +21.8% 34.5
111 Palestine (État de) 8,451,891 ASIE 5,692,790 +48.5% 29.0
112 Oman 7,827,002 ASIE 5,671,459 +38.0% 32.4
113 Biélorussie 7,453,546 EUROPE 8,937,018 -16.6% 49.1
114 Liban 6,999,260 ASIE 5,897,467 +18.7% 37.5
115 Salvador 6,663,346 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 6,391,254 +4.3% 39.9
116 Koweït 6,367,756 ASIE 5,102,773 +24.8% 36.5
117 Danemark 6,124,838 EUROPE 6,023,521 +1.7% 45.3
118 Hong Kong RAS (Chine) 6,090,619 ASIE 7,378,602 -17.5% 62.9
119 Singapour 6,081,692 ASIE 5,905,748 +3.0% 51.9
120 Irlande 5,970,042 EUROPE 5,356,950 +11.4% 43.9
121 Norvège 5,899,829 EUROPE 5,652,989 +4.4% 46.5
122 Nouvelle-Zélande 5,755,288 OCÉANIE 5,287,479 +8.8% 43.7
123 Eritrea 5,696,062 AFRIQUE 3,682,669 +54.7% 26.1
124 Panama 5,630,680 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 4,625,718 +21.7% 39.2
125 Serbie 5,532,870 EUROPE 6,641,964 -16.7% 49.4
126 Bulgarie 5,402,217 EUROPE 6,667,660 -19.0% 49.0
127 Costa Rica 5,354,151 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 5,174,789 +3.5% 47.9
128 Finlande 5,351,645 EUROPE 5,621,739 -4.8% 47.5
129 Slovaquie 4,936,488 EUROPE 5,451,342 -9.4% 50.3
130 Namibie 4,512,301 AFRIQUE 3,153,246 +43.1% 28.8
131 Mongolie 4,501,493 ASIE 3,556,798 +26.6% 32.9
132 Gambie 4,301,896 AFRIQUE 2,884,080 +49.2% 27.1
133 Qatar 4,164,461 ASIE 3,173,560 +31.2% 33.2
134 Gabon 4,084,533 AFRIQUE 2,647,400 +54.3% 26.6
135 Géorgie 3,664,014 ASIE 3,804,642 -3.7% 41.5
136 Guinée-Bissau 3,438,608 AFRIQUE 2,297,808 +49.6% 26.8
137 Botswana 3,437,430 AFRIQUE 2,603,388 +32.0% 31.4
138 Uruguay 3,254,355 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 3,382,537 -3.8% 46.1
139 Croatie 3,234,160 EUROPE 3,822,345 -15.4% 50.1
140 Guinée Equatoriale 3,143,728 AFRIQUE 1,984,468 +58.4% 25.4
141 Lesotho 2,993,077 AFRIQUE 2,389,336 +25.3% 29.8
142 Puerto Rico 2,503,995 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 3,222,688 -22.3% 55.7
143 Arménie 2,495,207 ASIE 2,930,915 -14.9% 46.2
144 Bosnie-Herzégovine 2,455,167 EUROPE 3,114,242 -21.2% 52.5
145 Jamaïque 2,454,940 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 2,833,404 -13.4% 47.0
146 Moldavie (République de) 2,351,809 EUROPE 2,961,254 -20.6% 41.9
147 Lithuanie 2,258,774 EUROPE 2,797,338 -19.3% 51.3
148 Albanie 2,240,166 EUROPE 2,751,025 -18.6% 51.9
149 Bahreïn 2,139,465 ASIE 1,675,572 +27.7% 36.0
150 Slovénie 1,981,553 EUROPE 2,114,574 -6.3% 49.0
151 Timor-Leste 1,889,250 ASIE 1,436,923 +31.5% 32.2
152 Djibouti 1,530,540 AFRIQUE 1,199,460 +27.6% 32.2
153 Lettonie 1,513,810 EUROPE 1,835,935 -17.5% 49.0
154 Macédoine (République de) 1,512,688 EUROPE 1,804,063 -16.2% 48.7
155 Chypre 1,508,482 ASIE 1,382,335 +9.1% 48.6
156 Swaziland 1,505,331 AFRIQUE 1,269,859 +18.5% 30.4
157 Trinité-et-Tobago 1,399,800 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 1,513,268 -7.5% 46.7
158 Iles Solomon 1,309,110 OCÉANIE 858,288 +52.5% 27.5
159 Comores 1,307,558 AFRIQUE 899,010 +45.4% 26.4
160 Estonie 1,174,268 EUROPE 1,331,062 -11.8% 49.4
161 Mauritius 1,107,197 AFRIQUE 1,265,059 -12.5% 50.1
162 Fidji 1,000,261 OCÉANIE 937,282 +6.7% 34.3
163 Réunion 941,413 AFRIQUE 886,298 +6.2% 42.5
164 Guyana 940,608 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 840,890 +11.9% 33.3
165 Bhutan 882,340 ASIE 802,214 +10.0% 43.1
166 Luxembourg 791,464 EUROPE 687,449 +15.1% 46.6
167 Sahara occidental 777,316 AFRIQUE 610,813 +27.3% 37.6
168 Suriname 733,905 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 645,257 +13.7% 36.8
169 Macao RAS (Chine) 668,860 ASIE 723,189 -7.5% 57.0
170 Mayotte 645,426 AFRIQUE 347,536 +85.7% 23.6
171 Maldives 589,963 ASIE 531,517 +11.0% 50.3
172 Cap vert 566,134 AFRIQUE 529,630 +6.9% 41.8
173 Malte 535,722 EUROPE 549,011 -2.4% 53.9
174 Vanuatu 534,388 OCÉANIE 342,564 +56.0% 26.3
175 Montenegro 533,295 EUROPE 626,233 -14.8% 46.0
176 Brunéi Darussalam 519,551 ASIE 469,775 +10.6% 42.3
177 Belize 516,627 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 428,645 +20.5% 38.9
178 Guinée française 471,917 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 318,872 +48.0% 29.6
179 Islande 432,993 EUROPE 402,329 +7.6% 45.9
180 Bahamas 424,265 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 404,629 +4.9% 43.6
181 Sao Tomé-et-Principe 365,115 AFRIQUE 244,994 +49.0% 25.9
182 Nouvelle calédonie 340,581 OCÉANIE 297,893 +14.3% 41.6
183 Guadeloupe 326,318 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 372,453 -12.4% 46.7
184 Polynésie française 284,751 OCÉANIE 283,076 +0.6% 48.5
185 Martinique 282,070 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 337,711 -16.5% 49.4
186 Samoa 272,726 OCÉANIE 220,528 +23.7% 25.0
187 Barbade 264,216 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 282,725 -6.5% 45.3
188 Guam 191,459 OCÉANIE 170,185 +12.5% 35.7
189 Kiribati 182,622 OCÉANIE 138,445 +31.9% 28.6
190 Curaçao 173,498 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 185,441 -6.4% 48.2
191 Sainte-Lucie 172,081 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 180,488 -4.7% 46.6
192 Seychelles 141,747 AFRIQUE 134,959 +5.0% 43.5
193 Micronésie 126,408 OCÉANIE 114,183 +10.7% 30.2
194 Grenade 113,244 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 117,362 -3.5% 45.3
195 Tonga 105,195 OCÉANIE 103,291 +1.8% 27.5
196 Aruba 100,002 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 108,164 -7.5% 45.2
197 Antigua-et-Barbuda 95,055 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 94,626 +0.5% 46.7
198 Saint-Vincent-et-les-Grenadines 88,942 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 99,245 -10.4% 40.9
199 îles Vierges des États-Unis 71,226 AMÉRIQUE LATINE ET CARAIBES 83,401 -14.6% 43.4

The next 25 years, country by country

Under the UN's medium-variant projection, India is set to remain the world's most populous country in 2050 at roughly 1.68 billion people, up from about 1.48 billion in 2026. China, by contrast, is projected to keep shrinking from its current 1.41 billion to around 1.26 billion — a decline of more than 150 million people in 25 years, larger than the current population of Russia. The United States is projected to reach about 381 million, keeping its position as the third most populous country, with continued (if slower) growth driven mostly by immigration rather than fertility. Nigeria is the country to watch furthest down the table: projected to grow from about 242 million today to 359 million by 2050, it would overtake the United States to become the world's third most populous country within a generation.

Growth concentrates in Africa, decline concentrates in Europe

Almost every country projected to add substantially to its population by 2050 is in Sub-Saharan Africa — a direct consequence of the age structure visible in our median age ranking, where the region's broad-based, young populations guarantee further growth even under falling fertility. The mirror image holds for Europe and East Asia, where the countries topping our shrinking populations ranking are, unsurprisingly, projected to keep declining through 2050 rather than recovering.

How much to trust a 25-year projection

A 2050 projection is built almost entirely on people who are already alive today — the parents of 2050 are already born, so total population 25 years out is far more predictable than fertility or migration alone would suggest. The main source of uncertainty is fertility: small changes compound over 25 years, especially in countries currently in the middle of their fertility transition. Treat this table as the UN's central estimate, not a guarantee — see our 2100 projection for how much wider the range of outcomes becomes over a longer horizon.

Questions fréquentes

Combien de pays ce classement couvre-t-il ?

Ce tableau couvre 199 pays et territoires, classés à partir des données des Perspectives de la population mondiale des Nations Unies.

Quel pays aura la population la plus importante en 2050 ?

Inde devrait avoir la population la plus importante en 2050, avec 1,679,589,259 habitants.

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